President Yoweri Museveni holds a strong lead against his rivals in a nationwide opinion poll, while the survey shows Robert Kyagulanyi, also known as Bobi Wine, and his National Unity Platform (NUP) face the highest negative public perception ahead of the 2026 elections.
The poll by Mash Research Africa reveals that 38% of respondents view Kyagulanyi unfavorably. It also shows that 36% hold a negative view of NUP. These are the highest unpopularity ratings among political figures and parties in the race.
Museveni leads the vote intention with 64.8%, while Kyagulanyi trails at 27.3%. James Nathan Nandala Mafabi of the Forum for Democratic Change polled 2.4%. Gregory Mugisha Muntu of the Alliance for National Transformation scored 0.9%.
Mash Research Africa said, “Current voting intention points to a comfortable first-round victory in the 65–70% range if current trends hold.”
The researchers interviewed 9,812 respondents across Uganda. Museveni’s biggest support comes from the Northern region at 74% and the Western region at 70%. Kyagulanyi performs strongest in Eastern Uganda, where he secured 34%.
The poll shows Museveni enjoys broad favorability, with 72% of respondents rating him positively. Kyagulanyi’s ratings are more polarized, with a significant portion expressing negative or neutral views.
The data further suggests a generational divide. Museveni dominates among older and rural voters, while Kyagulanyi appeals most to the youth and urban population. Mash Research Africa noted a “political landscape where Museveni maintains a dominant, but aging support base, while Kyagulanyi holds a passionate but fluctuating constituency.”
The firm also observed that the strengths of Kyagulanyi and NUP in Kasese and some eastern districts are limited by voter numbers. Districts such as Arua, Lira and Kiryandongo give Museveni commanding margins, reinforcing a national advantage.
Mash Research Africa said the survey assessed voter priorities ahead of the January 2026 elections, including corruption and unemployment concerns. Uganda has 21.6 million registered voters across 146 districts.
Researchers concluded that the race remains a contest between continuity and change, but Kyagulanyi’s high unfavorability and NUP’s negative perception present a major hurdle for the opposition.
